Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol,Austria

Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses—with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.     

应用体内和体外方法评价原油水溶性组分和原油污染的地表水对淡水生物的内分泌干扰潜力

目前关于原油对淡水水生脊椎动物内分泌信号的潜在影响的认知有限。本文以非洲爪蟾(爪蟾属，X. laevis)蝌蚪和莫桑比克罗非鱼幼鱼(口孵非鲫属，O. mossambicus)为研究对象，选择风化原油和未风化提炼后的原油这2种原油的水溶性组分(WAFs)进行暴露实验，选择出可作为内分泌信号改变的生物标志物的基因，对其表达进行了研究。此外，将X. laevis蝌蚪暴露于靠近地下石油库的地表水中，对上述基因表达做了定量分析。利用重组酵母对原油、原油水溶性组分和地表水的(抗)雌激素和(抗)雄激素性进行了评价。在X. laevis对2种原油WAFs的响应中，甲状腺激素受体β表达均显著下调，而另一种与甲状腺相关的基因，2型脱碘酶，在O. mossambicus暴露于高浓度的原油WAF时被上调。此外，这2种WAFs都改变了与脂肪生成相关的过氧化物酶体增殖物激活受体γ在X. laevis中的表达。原油和WAFs在体外表现出抗雌激素和抗雄性激素的活性。然而，O. mossambicus雄激素受体2作为唯一一个代表生殖系统的基因，受到WAF暴露的影响显著。在地表水样品中发现了雌激素、抗雌激素和抗雄激素的作用；但是，在暴露于地表水的X. laevis中没有观察到任何基因表达的明显变化。在所用的2种模式生物以及2种原油中，响应各不相同。尽管如此，这些数据提供了证据证明原油污染可能会因内分泌信号转变对淡水鱼和两栖动物的健康造成不利影响。
精选自Truter, J. C., van Wyk, J. H., Oberholster, P. J., Botha, A.-M. and Mokwena, L. M. (2017), An evaluation of the endocrine disruptive potential of crude oil water accommodated fractions and crude oil contaminated surface water to freshwater organisms using in vitroand in vivo approaches. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1330–1342. doi: 10.1002/etc.3665
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3665/full
     

Flora and Vegetation of Tasiilaq,Formerly Angmagssalik,Southeast Greenland: A Comparison of Data Between Around 1900 and 2007

The changes in the vascular plant flora of Tasiilaq, low arctic Southeast Greenland, between around 1900 and 2007 were studied by comparing the data from historical literature with those of the field observations performed between the late 1960s and 2007. Since 1900, the percentage of widely distributed arctic species distinctly decreased, whereas that of the low arctic species somewhat increased, and boreal species hardly increased. Vegetation monitoring revealed minor changes and showed that several thermophilous and xerophilous species increased between 1968/1969 and 2007, whereas some hygrophilous species decreased. Repeated vegetation mapping of a shallow pond revealed conspicuous changes suggesting increased evaporation/precipitation ratios associated with environmental warming up and decreasing snow accumulation in winter, in line with results of previous investigations. In spite of climate warming, expansion of the town and increasing human impact, flora and vegetation on the whole appeared rather stable during the last 40 years without invading species or introductions.     

Observations of particle growth at a remote,Arctic site

Observations of particle size distributions suggest that particles grow significantly just above the snow surface at a remote, Arctic site. Measurements were made at Summit, Greenland (71.38°N and 31.98°W) at approximately 3200 m above sea level. No new particle formation was observed locally, but growth of ultrafine particles was identified by continuous evolution of the geometric mean diameter (GMD) during four events. The duration of the growth during events was between 24 and 115 h, and calculated event-average growth rates (GR) were 0.09, 0.30, 0.27, and 0.18 nm h^?1 during each event, respectively. Four-hour GR up to 0.96 nm h^?1 were observed. Events occurred during below- and above-average temperatures and were independent of wind direction. Correlation analysis of hourly-calculated GR suggested that particle growth was limited by the availability of photochemically produced precursor gases. Sulfuric acid played a very minor role in particle growth, which was likely dominated by condensation of organic compounds, the source of which was presumably the snow surface. The role of boundary layer dynamics is not definite, although some mixing at the surface is necessary for the observation of particle growth. Due to the potentially large geographic extent of events, observations described here may provide a link between long-range transport of mid-latitude pollutants and climate regulation in the remote Arctic.     

Window of opportunity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Liparis loeselii</Emphasis> populations during vegetation succession on the Wadden Sea islands

The present study aims at assessing the life span of populations of the orchid L. loeselii during successional in dune slacks on the Wadden Sea islands. An inventory of Liparis loeselii populations was carried out on 6 islands, while the population structure was assessed in more detail on the island of Texel. The occurrence of the orchid was related to soil factors and hydrological conditions. Groundwater levels were measured in a dune area with natural dune slack formation. The groundwater composition was analyses and the freshwater lenses were modelled. Various scenarios were investigated, including sea level rise and sand nourishment. The window of opportunity for L. loeselii to colonize a new slack is relatively narrow. Under favorable management, the population can survive c. 20 years. Soil pH was positively correlated with the occurrence of L. loeselii populations, while a high organic matter content was negatively correlated. Sites with large populations of L. loeselii, were situated in young dune slacks, that functioned as flow-through lakes and has top soilsinfluenced by anoxic calcareous groundwater. Modelling showed that the freshwater lens would decrease due to sea level rise, while artificial sand nourishment could counteract this effect. The populations of the Hors area on Texel, the Netherlands, can survive for several decades due to continuous formation of new slacks. Discharge of calcareous groundwater is essential to keep the pH on a high level. The hydrological systems that supply dune slack with groundwater are relatively small and are vulnerable for changes in sea level rise.     

Differentiation of nitrous oxide emission factors for agricultural soils

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) direct soil emissions from agriculture are often estimated using the default IPCC emission factor (EF) of 1%. However, a large variation in EFs exists due to differences in environment, crops and management. We developed an approach to determine N₂O EFs that depend on N-input sources and environmental factors. The starting point of the method was a monitoring study in which an EF of 1% was found. The conditions of this experiment were set as the reference from which the effects of 16 sources of N input, three soil types, two land-use types and annual precipitation on the N₂O EF were estimated. The derived EF inference scheme performed on average better than the default IPCC EF. The use of differentiated EFs, including different regional conditions, allows accounting for the effects of more mitigation measures and offers European countries a possibility to use a Tier 2 approach.     

风险管理压力下的准则应用

自2008年10月以来,全球金融危机持续升级,公司面临的质量和良好的公司治理方面的压力在继续增加。为了挖掘风险管理的内涵,来自IGH的Pieter Strydom博士将对一系列管理准则进行研究.分析确定出到底是什么样的人员、公司和政府更加善于管理风险。当然导致组织命运不同的原因很复杂,本次Pieter Strydom博士首先从人的因素开始分析。     

Controls on coarse wood decay in temperate tree species: birth of the LOGLIFE experiment

Dead wood provides a huge terrestrial carbon stock and a habitat to wide-ranging organisms during its decay. Our brief review highlights that, in order to understand environmental change impacts on these functions, we need to quantify the contributions of different interacting biotic and abiotic drivers to wood decomposition. LOGLIFE is a new long-term 'common-garden' experiment to disentangle the effects of species' wood traits and site-related environmental drivers on wood decomposition dynamics and its associated diversity of microbial and invertebrate communities. This experiment is firmly rooted in pioneering experiments under the directorship of Terry Callaghan at Abisko Research Station, Sweden. LOGLIFE features two contrasting forest sites in the Netherlands, each hosting a similar set of coarse logs and branches of 10 tree species. LOGLIFE welcomes other researchers to test further questions concerning coarse wood decay that will also help to optimise forest management in view of carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation.     

Controls on Coarse Wood Decay in Temperate Tree Species: Birth of the LOGLIFE Experiment

Dead wood provides a huge terrestrial carbon stock and a habitat to wide-ranging organisms during its decay. Our brief review highlights that, in order to understand environmental change impacts on these functions, we need to quantify the contributions of different interacting biotic and abiotic drivers to wood decomposition. LOGLIFE is a new long-term ‘common-garden’ experiment to disentangle the effects of species’ wood traits and site-related environmental drivers on wood decomposition dynamics and its associated diversity of microbial and invertebrate communities. This experiment is firmly rooted in pioneering experiments under the directorship of Terry Callaghan at Abisko Research Station, Sweden. LOGLIFE features two contrasting forest sites in the Netherlands, each hosting a similar set of coarse logs and branches of 10 tree species. LOGLIFE welcomes other researchers to test further questions concerning coarse wood decay that will also help to optimise forest management in view of carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation.